Market Metrics-Mid Year 2010
Created: 7/14/2010
July 13, 2010 – With the first half of 2010 behind us, we look again to the three trends that define the current market cycle. As the recovery gains steam, we look for signs of strength in pricing, unit volume and a decrease in the proportion of distressed property sales.
Median Price – After rising consistently from $256K in January to $280K in March, prices eased in April and May to $259K, then turned sharply upward in June to $288K. This is an increase of 11% month over month, and year to date. While still 10% below the year ago median of $320K, we have a rising trend over 6 months.
There is a sustained uptrend in median price, and coupled with the decrease in distressed sales it argues favorably for the beginning of a recovery, at least in our local market.
Unit Volume – The strongest trend in the Nevada County market is in the monthly number of homes sold. Since a recent low of 53 in January, each month of 2010 has been higher and June saw 103 homes sold. This is a year to date increase of 94%, a month to month increase of 29% and a year over year increase of 16%. Everywhere you look, it’s up! The figure of 103 in the month of June compares to the high point of the current cycle in Q2-2004 of 155 units and to the low in March 2009, when only 38 units sold.
There has been a significant increase in unit volume over the last 18 months, more than at any other time since 2004.
Distressed Sales – In a normal or rising market, the percentage of distressed sales (Short Sales and REO) is quite low, usually 5% or less. During 2008, as the number of homeowners facing challenges increased dramatically, this percentage rose into the double digits. While distressed property inventory has been relatively constant at around 20% of total, unit sales volume has been mostly well above that for the last 18 months, reaching as high as 60% of total units in August 2009. In January and February 2010, it has been around 55%, declining to 42% in March and 41% in April. After a slight rise to 49% in May, June saw 39%.
In the month of June 2010, our market saw 10 sales between $500K and $1MM, and 3 over $1MM. This encouraging activity in the upper market, coupled with a decline in the distressed sales, is another strong signal of the recovery getting some traction.
Paul Sieving is a Realtor® with CENTURY 21 Gold Dust Realty, a former Director and MLS Chair of NCAOR, was Board Chair of the Grass Valley Chamber of Commerce in 2004, and has served our community as a real estate professional for 12 years. Comments, questions and thoughts are welcome at Paul@PaulSieving.com or (530) 274-0906.
