Nevada County Real Estate Market Metrics-Q3-2011
Created: 11/22/2011
November, 2011 – As of September 30, with 3 full quarters of data, we compare trends in median price, unit volume, distressed property and days on market to quarter-ago and year-ago numbers. The trend for the recent quarter, relative to the previous quarter is “steady as she goes”, with a couple of positive improvements.
Median Price – In order to account for seasonality, we want to focus on year-to-year comparisons. As the external market forces related to the housing crash diminish, we are beginning to see normal seasonal trends emerge once again. One of the seasonal regularities is that prices tend to peak in the third quarter of each year as the summer selling season unfolds. This has happened in 2009 and 2010. In 2011, there is no significant peak in Q3, but rather a level price trend for the entire year to date.
The median price for single family residences (SFR) sold in Q3-2011 was $225,000, compared to $279,000 in the year-ago period and $225,000 in the last quarter. This amounts to a year-over year decline of 19%, and no decline since last quarter. This larger year over year decline is attributable to the fact that there was a price spike in Q3-2011, but not in the current quarter.
Unit Volume – The strongest positive trend in the Nevada County market is in the monthly number of homes sold. The total number of SFR sales in Q3-2011 was 280, compared to 233 in the year-ago period and 281 in the previous quarter. This amounts to a year-over-year increase of 20%, and essentially no change over last quarter.
This is the highest unit volume since Q4 2005, and a strong sign of an accelerating recovery.
Days on Market – In Q1-2011 we saw an unexpected spike in DOM, and it was related to a big increase in sales of distressed properties that had lingered on the market. In Q2-2011, DOM had returned to the trend line, and has dropped farther still in Q3. At 87, this is down 7.5% from 94 in the year ago period and a decline of an additional 13% since Q2, for a total decline of 26% since Q1-2011. This is a fairly normal market time for a healthy market, if anyone remembers what that looks like. Market time is now in a very positive range and the trend is improving.
Distressed Sales – The level of distressed sales (Short Sales and REO) had risen to around 50% in Q3 2009 and been stable at this level until spiking to 60% in Q1-2011. Distressed sales were 53% of all sales in Q2 2011 and have fallen further to 45% in Q3. In the current quarter, there was a drop off in Short Sales, while REO sales held relatively steady.
We are beginning to see a peak in total distressed sales in the rear-view mirror, as the fall-off gains steam. We are seeing strong performance in sales volume and days on the market, while distressed sales are decreasing. Prices have been stable for the entire year to date, and seasonal trends are once again establishing themselves.
In the Nevada County Real Estate market, we are bucking the national trends of declining sales volume and increasing marketing time in significantly positive ways. Steady as she goes!
Paul Sieving is a Realtor® with Good & Company Realty, a former Director and MLS Chair of NCAOR, was Board Chair of the Grass Valley Chamber of Commerce in 2004, and has served our community as a real estate professional for 12 years. Comments, questions and thoughts are welcome at Paul@PaulSieving.com or (530) 274-0906.
